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Back In The Bay

7yo Mare · 11-10 · OR 106

Warwick · Abi And Brad Divorce Handicap Hurdle · 3m 2f

#4

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Scored twice at up to 2½m over hurdles last summer. Back to form when second over hurdles at Worcester (23f) in August but pulled up (first-time cheekpieces) back chasing at Bangor (3m, good) 18 days ago. Not without interest returned to this sphere.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Uttoxeter 26/07/2024 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 1m7f168y Gd 15626/0744 @ Plumpton 03/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 2m4f114y Gd 1564 @ Fakenham 06/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 2m4f1y Gd 1606/0545 @ Worcester 12/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 101 · 2m4f Goo 168 · below its mark12/06/2025 · OR 101 par5 @ Stratford 20/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 101 · 2m2f148y Goo 164 · beat its mark20/07/2025 · OR 101 par20/075OR 1014 @ Fakenham 17/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 108 · 2m4f1y Gd 168 · below its mark17/10/2025 · OR 108 par4 @ Bangor-on-Dee 23/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 106 · 2m3f123y Gd 164 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 106 par23/054OR 1064 @ Uttoxeter 07/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 104 · 2m4f Gd 157 · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 104 par5 @ Worcester 19/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 104 · 2m7f Gd 168 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 104 par19/085OR 104projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Bangor-on-Dee40
2026-08-19Worcester52nd3rd−1
2026-07-07Uttoxeter45th5th0
2026-05-23Bangor-on-Dee47th7th0
2025-10-17Fakenham43rd3rd0
2025-07-20Stratford51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0712/0623/0519/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength94%

Delivery trend +3.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/20247th17/255%54%-0.01
03/04/20253rd4/179%33%-0.46
06/05/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
12/06/20252nd5/287%83%-0.04
20/07/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
17/10/20253rd10/1195%0%-0.95
23/05/20267th11/142%25%-0.17
07/07/20265th7/163%43%-0.20
19/08/20262nd16/116%93%+0.77