Belles Benefit
10yo Mare · 11-9 · OR 105
Warwick · Abi And Brad Divorce Handicap Hurdle · 3m 2f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Cartmel | 2 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-07-18 | Cartmel | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Cartmel | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Huntingdon | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Fontwell | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-09-23 | Warwick | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 23/08/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 06/09/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 23/09/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 03/10/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 02/11/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |