1
Lacrima
5yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 108
Warwick · Abi And Brad Divorce Handicap Hurdle · 3m 2f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Worcester | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Worcester | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Worcester | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Stratford | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Warwick | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Chepstow | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength85%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 29/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/04/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 04/05/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 25% | -0.70 |