5
Pipers Cross
9yo Mare · 11-2 · OR 98
Warwick · Abi And Brad Divorce Handicap Hurdle · 3m 2f
#3
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Warwick | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-26 | Plumpton | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Exeter | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Doncaster | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-11 | Lingfield | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-04-15 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/01/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 09/02/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 82% | +0.06 |
| 06/03/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/04/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 11/11/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 09/01/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 26/01/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 20/02/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |