Asked And Answered
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 77
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-08-01 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | -2th | +6 |
| 2026-07-16 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-07-10 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 2nd | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 10/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 04/06/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 16/07/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/08/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |