18:00 · Southwell

Free Tips On attheraces.com Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

4f 215yGoing TBCClass 43YO plusALLWEATHER5 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
Top Pick1
OR 79
2/1
Leading Times silks

Times of Wigan

4yo Gelding · 9-12

Blue Point - Excellent Times (Excelebration)

Sean Kirrane60%T D Easterby
12
8.0

Blue Point gelding. Made a winning debut in maiden over C&D and improved on that when second of 8 in novice at Wolverhampton (5f) 10 months ago on his final run for Roger Varian. Starts out for another good yard after an absence here but remains with potential.

Class Advantage

23/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a23/0925/11 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a25/11projClass-projected finish: 1st of 3
Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move1
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 4f 215y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 100%23/09Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 86%25/11
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 2-2 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength70%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -0.6%Ahead 1/2
3
Market Fav2
OR 70
7/4
Qila silks

Brian Ellison Racing Club

3yo Gelding · 9-4

Havana Gold - Last Frontier (Kendargent)

Harry Russell0/2B Ellison
420333
6.0Going 8.0
Tongue strap

Improved since having a second breathing operation and best work at the finish when third in a pair of 5f Beverley handicaps last 2 runs. Big shout in his bid to gain a first win at the eighth attempt.

Class Advantage

18/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a18/0919/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a9/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below9/06 · mark par7/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/08 · mark par12/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above12/08 · mark par16/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above16/09 · mark par16/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 4f 215y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 63%18/09Pos 2 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 80%Pos 10 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 10 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 10%9/06Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 60%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 78%12/08Pos 3 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 82%16/09
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +15.3%Ahead 2/4
2
3
OR 68
7/2
Believeinmenow silks

Mr John R Saville

3yo Gelding · 9-4

Ubettabelieveit - Weisse Socken (Acclamation)

Alex Jary−3lbN Tinkler
273942
5.0Class ↓2

Remains winless but he's proving a reliable sort and posted another good effort when second of 14 in handicap at Newcastle (6f) 19 days ago, finishing well having had to wait for a run 2f out. Often a slow starter but a player here.

Class Advantage

4/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/05 · mark par4/0516/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below16/05 · mark par2/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/06 · mark par19/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below19/06 · mark par31/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par5/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 3
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 4f 215y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 92%4/05Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 14%Pos 3 · SP 16/5 | Expected: 83%Pos 3 · SP 16/5 | Actual: 67%2/06Pos 9 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 9 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 0%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 73%31/07Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 92%5/09
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength69%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -15.1%Ahead 1/4
5
4
12/1
Wouldilietoyou silks

R S Cockerill (Farms) Ltd

3yo Filly · 8-13

Ubettabelieveit - Hollow Promise (Beat Hollow)

Mark WinnD O'Meara80%
No form3.0

Ubettabelieveit filly. Half-sister to 6f winner Promise Time. Dam unraced. In good hands and needs considering on her debut, especially if the market vibes are positive.

Class Advantage

No data

Previous Market Position

Projected finish4th of 525% of field
NO HISTORYfirst run / unraced
Trend
Strength37%
4
5
8/1
Sunday River silks

Mrs Claire Ellison

3yo Filly · 8-13

Havana Grey - Al Shoughor (Shalaa)

Tom Kiely-Marshall60%−3lbB Ellison
0
2.0

6/1 and blinkered, twice hampered when tenth of 13 in maiden at Naas (6f, good to soft) on her debut for Paddy Twomey 17 months ago. This Havana Grey filly has her fitness to prove on yard debut/comeback run.

Class Advantage

28/04 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a28/04
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move4
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 4f 215y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 10 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 25%28/04
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 8-13 · 50%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength36%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -43.4%Ahead 0/1