15:10 · Newmarket

Budds Horseracing Memorabilia Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m 4fGoing TBCClass 43YO plusTURFHandicap9 runners
Ordered by projected finish
7
Top Pick1
OR 81
5/1
Zurna silks

Mr R J Creese

3yo Gelding · 9-7

Sea The Moon - Halay (Dansili)

Dylan Hogan60%2/3J & S Birkett
97211
9.0

Lightly-raced Sea The Moon gelding. Well positioned when making a winning start in handicaps at Epsom in July. Slightly awkward head carriage didn't prevent a follow up in another small-field event on July course last time. Needs more to land a hat-trick on first start against his elders.

Class Advantage

19/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a19/058/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a19/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a9/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/07 · mark par21/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par21/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength52%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f · 40%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 200/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 200/1 | Actual: 11%19/05Pos 7 · SP 300/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 300/1 | Actual: 54%8/06Pos 2 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 67%19/06Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%9/07Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%21/08
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +42.0%Ahead 4/4
2
Market Fav2
OR 80
2/1
King Of Berkshire silks

Mrs A Althani

3yo Colt · 9-12

Camelot - Full Rose (Aqlaam)

Oisin Murphy80%0/2A M Balding60%
313421
8.0Going 10.0

Form of penultimate second at Ascot has worked out well. Found plenty of improvement to notch a third career success (all from the front) in a Windsor handicap 10 days ago. Still looks well treated under a 6-lb penalty and can follow up for excellent connections.

Class Advantage

18/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/05 · mark par18/055/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par12/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below12/06 · mark par11/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par8/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par14/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above14/09 · mark par14/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength49%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 67%18/05Pos 1 · SP 4/9 | Expected: 98%Pos 1 · SP 4/9 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 8/13 | Expected: 97%Pos 3 · SP 8/13 | Actual: 33%12/06Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 40%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 89%8/08Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 100%14/09
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength75%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -15.4%Ahead 2/4
3
3
OR 77
8/1
First Officer silks

Mr Bryan Hirst & Jane Chapple-hyam

7yo Gelding · 9-10

Galileo - Weekend Strike (Smart Strike)

Sorin Moldoveanu2/8−7lbJane Chapple-Hyam
352242
8.0

Smooth-travelling sort who's finished runner-up on 3 of his 5 starts this season. Again unlucky to bump into one when beaten 7 lengths in a better race on the July Course here latest. Very much respected given his form figures (312123) on the Rowley Course.

Class Advantage

25/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above25/09 · mark par25/0923/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above23/05 · mark par11/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/06 · mark par11/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par1/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above1/08 · mark par20/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength67%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 71%25/09Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 56%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 80%11/06Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 57%1/08Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 75%20/08
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength62%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -2.6%Ahead 1/4
5
4
OR 83
5/1
Charles Darnay silks

The Gredley Family

3yo Gelding · 9-9

Planteur - Madame Defarge (Motivator)

Cieren Fallon70%James Owen
5311
7.0

Lightly-raced 3-y-o who was very much on the up in 4 all-weather starts earlier this year. Value for extra when last seen completing a double on handicap debut at Lingfield in early-June. Since undergone a breathing operation and remains totally unexposed as he bids for a hat-trick on turf debut.

Class Advantage

17/01 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a17/017/02 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a7/022/03 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a2/031/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above1/06 · mark par1/06projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 33%17/01Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 82%7/02Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 100%2/03Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 100%1/06
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength66%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +9.0%Ahead 3/4
8
6
OR 74
13/2
Astracornus silks

Lady Blyth

3yo Gelding · 9-0

Golden Horn - Astragal (Shamardal)

Saffie Osborne70%0/1D Menuisier60%
066124
6.0

Successful on handicap debut at Nottingham prior to being narrowly denied at Newbury (both solid form). Creditable 3¼-length fourth of 13 at Goodwood latest, a more marked tendency to hang right possibly more to do with the track. Extra furlong will suit and could be in the mix if improving for it.

Class Advantage

6/11 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a6/1125/04 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a25/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a20/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par9/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/07 · mark par31/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par31/07projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength52%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 31%6/11Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 55%25/05Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 83%9/07Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 75%31/07
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength62%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -1.4%Ahead 2/4
1
5
OR 81
12/1
Masterinthewoods silks

Mr Andy Pittman

4yo Gelding · 10-0

Mastercraftsman - Penwood (Orpen)

David Probert70%1/3Miss E C Lavelle
712228
6.0Going 10.0

Followed up his improved success at Salisbury with a hat-trick of seconds in 1½m handicaps this summer. Type to bounce back from a rare poor effort at Doncaster last time, though others look slightly better off at the weights.

Class Advantage

4/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below4/05 · mark par4/0523/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above23/05 · mark par19/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par25/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par15/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above15/08 · mark par10/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above10/09 · mark par10/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength35%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 7 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 33%4/05Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 83%19/06Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 93%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 75%15/08Pos 8 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 8 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 13%10/09
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength7%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -18.8%Ahead 1/4
9
7
OR 73
8/1
La Peregrina silks

Mrs Fitri Hay

3yo Gelding · 8-13

Sea The Stars - Pink Pearl (Shamardal)

K Shoemark60%0/2E Walker
502213
7.0Going 8.0

First past post at Goodwood in June (demoted after causing interference) prior to making the most of a good opportunity at Thirsk (1½m, good). Seemingly no excuses for again being turned over at odds on at Lingfield last time, though, and he's pitched into a better race here.

Class Advantage

14/03 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a14/0315/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/05 · mark par19/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par9/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/07 · mark par1/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/08 · mark par1/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/09 · mark par1/09projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength33%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 56%14/03Pos 12 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 15%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 100%19/06Pos 2 · SP 4/5 | Expected: 96%Pos 2 · SP 4/5 | Actual: 75%Pos 1 · SP 4/7 | Expected: 97%Pos 1 · SP 4/7 | Actual: 100%1/08Pos 3 · SP 4/5 | Expected: 96%Pos 3 · SP 4/5 | Actual: 50%1/09
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength30%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -6.0%Ahead 2/4
6
9
OR 75
20/1
Mr Freedom silks

The Affordable (3) Partnership

7yo Gelding · 9-8

Sixties Icon - Waitingforachance (Sayif)

Charles Bishop0/1Miss S West60%
653585
4.0Class ↓4Going 8.0
Cheek pieces

Fairly useful dual-purpose performer. Ran as well as could be expected when beaten 6 lengths (also met some trouble) in a higher grade at Doncaster last time. Should be competitive following a 2-lb reprieve.

Class Advantage

24/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below24/08 · mark par24/0822/03 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below22/03 · mark par14/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above14/05 · mark par12/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par1/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below1/07 · mark par10/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above10/09 · mark par10/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move1
Strength62%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 0%24/08Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 3 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 75%14/05Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 43%Pos 8 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 8 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 22%1/07Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 50%10/09
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength32%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +26.5%Ahead 3/4
4
8
OR 77
20/1
Double Meaning silks

Mr Tony Fordham

4yo Gelding · 9-10

Farhh - Carriwitchet (Dubawi)

Tom Marquand70%0/1John Berry
24535P
5.0

Dual winner of staying handicaps on the all-weather. Ran well to hit the frame both previous starts at this course, however, he clearly wasn't right when pulled up (reported to have bled) at Kempton 7 weeks ago.

Class Advantage

4/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above4/09 · mark par4/093/10 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/10 · mark par10/10 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above10/10 · mark par29/10 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above29/10 · mark par15/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above15/05 · mark par13/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above13/06 · mark par13/06projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength68%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 1/3 | Expected: 98%Pos 1 · SP 1/3 | Actual: 100%4/09Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 80%Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 73%10/10Pos 5 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 5 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 20%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 71%15/05Pos 5 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 5 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 50%13/06
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -27.1%Ahead 1/4