13:30 · Listowel

Seamus Mulvaney Bookmaker Novice Hurdle

2mGoing TBC4YO plusTURF5 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
Top Pick1
OR 123
8/1
Cosmos D'ainay silks

Mrs L Rabson

6yo Gelding · 11-12

Muhtathir - Eclipse D'ainay (Sholokhov)

Jack Kennedy60%1/3G Elliott
319311
8.0Going 10.0

Lightly-raced point/bumper winner who impressed when opening his hurdles account at the third time of asking in maiden at Cork (17.3f) after 11 months off in July. Made the most of a good opportunity when following up at Perth (2m) and remains with potential for all that this is a much stiffer task.

Class Advantage

17/04 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a17/0413/05 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a3/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a17/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a10/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a7/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above7/09 · mark par7/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 86%17/04Pos 1 · SP 1/2 | Expected: 97%Pos 1 · SP 1/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 9 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 9 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 43%3/07Pos 3 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 3 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 71%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%10/07Pos 1 · SP 8/15 | Expected: 97%Pos 1 · SP 8/15 | Actual: 100%7/09
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength68%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -0.3%Ahead 2/4
4
2
8/1
Golden Handshake silks

Four D Partnership

4yo Gelding · 11-5

Zarak - Star Value (Danehill Dancer)

Philip Byrnes60%1/1W Durkan
U1
7.0Class ↓6Going 8.0

Back-to-back winner on the Flat at around 1½m last summer for William Haggas, before failing to give his running on final 2 outings of the campaign. Closing on the leader when unseating rider on hurdle debut and gained compensation at Killarney (2m) subsequently. Remains potentially useful.

Class Advantage

20/05 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a20/0518/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a18/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par23/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above23/08 · mark par18/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/09 · mark par22/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a22/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move3
Strength85%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 86%20/05Pos 1 · SP 2/11 | Expected: 99%Pos 1 · SP 2/11 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 100%18/07Pos 11 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 11 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 9%Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 20%18/09Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 100%22/08
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength4%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -26.2%Ahead 2/4
3
5
OR 141
11/8
Bartholomew silks

Old Pals Partnership

4yo Gelding · 11-5

Nathaniel - Contentment (Cacique)

Ricky Doyle1/3M Brassil
412
5.0Class ↓7
Tongue strap

Notably progressive in 3 juvenile hurdles last season, finishing second in a Grade 1 at Punchestown in April. Well backed but shaped as if better for the run back on the level at Gowran at the beginning of the month and that should put him spot on for this. Sets a clear standard.

Class Advantage

19/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a19/0916/10 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a27/12 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a5/04 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a2/05 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a1/09 · C8 · finish vs mark below1/09 · mark par1/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 77%19/09Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 64%Pos 4 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 83%27/12Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 91%2/05Pos 7 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 7 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 50%1/09
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength77%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +25.0%Ahead 3/4
2
Market Fav4
5/4
Columbus silks

Angela Shamoon,G Loxton,Vincent Caldwell

5yo Gelding · 11-7

Oasis Dream - Cribbs Causeway (Rip Van Winkle)

Paul Townend70%1/2W P Mullins70%
21
5.0Class ↓7Going 8.0

Smart on Flat for Christophe Ferland. Joined Willie Mullins for €400,000 and confirmed hurdling debut promise when making all in a 17f maiden at Galway in August, jumping fluently. Tailed off in the Lonsdale Cup back on the level at York latest but better still to come over hurdles.

Class Advantage

13/07 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a13/0724/08 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a11/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a20/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below20/06 · mark par1/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a21/08 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark below21/08 · mark par21/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move4
Strength97%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 4 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 40%13/07Pos 5 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 5 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 2 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 2 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 86%11/05Pos 11 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 11 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 17%Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 100%1/08Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 0%21/08
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength58%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -15.6%Ahead 1/4
5
3
12/1
Beir Bua silks

Grainne & Kenneth Keogh

5yo Mare · 11-0

Berkshire - Salou Blues (Moscow Society)

Cian Quirke60%1/2A Slattery
243121
6.0Going 10.0
Tongue strap

Progressive bumper winner who built on her hurdling debut promise when winning 2¼m maiden at Sligo in May, cruising clear despite an untidy leap at the last. Too free starting out on the Flat at Leopardstown the following month and may get taken on for the lead on this return to hurdling.

Class Advantage

11/07 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a11/0718/07 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a6/08 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a22/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a12/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a18/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a18/06projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 80%11/07Pos 3 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 3 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 71%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%6/08Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 92%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%12/05Pos 9 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 9 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 43%18/06
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -2.7%Ahead 3/4