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15:47 · Listowel

Ballygarry Estate Hotel & Spa Mares Novice Chase

2m 3fGoing TBC4YO plusTURF7 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
2
OR 128
9/4
La Note Verte silks

Simon Munir & Isaac Souede

La Note Verte

6yo Mare · 11-7

Australia - Camelia De Cotte (Laveron)

Paul Townend70%2/4W P Mullins70%
164331
7.0Going 10.0Class ↓7

Continued a theme of run-to-run progression over fences when winning 6-runner mares maiden at Tramore last time by 6 lengths from Future Prospect. Further improvement expected, so expected to be bang there back down in trip.

Class Advantage

7/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a7/0729/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a24/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a9/05 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a22/07 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a16/08 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a16/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength21%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 100%7/07Pos 6 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 6 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 17%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 25%24/09Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 78%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 60%22/07Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 100%16/08
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -15.4%Ahead 1/4
4
Market Fav3
2/1
Miss Doyenne silks

Envirogreen Housing Services Ltd

Miss Doyenne

6yo Mare · 11-7

Doyen - Miss Generosity (Generous)

Darragh O'Keeffe60%1/2H De Bromhead60%
113311
9.0Going 8.0

Point and bumper winner who got off the mark at the third attempt over hurdles but made the perfect start to her chasing career when winning 10-runner mares maiden at Killarney in May. Off since, but yard in good heart and she's clearly open to improvement in this sphere.

Class Advantage

21/04 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a21/0426/12 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a26/01 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a12/04 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a9/05 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a9/05projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f · 80%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%21/04Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 88%26/12Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 87%26/01Pos 1 · SP 8/11 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 8/11 | Actual: 100%12/04Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%9/05
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength95%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +8.2%Ahead 3/4
3
5
OR 125
3/1
Lady Bluebird silks

Hugh Paul Finegan

Lady Bluebird

9yo Mare · 11-7

Retirement Plan - Blueberrythethird (Golden Lariat)

Eoghan Finegan60%3/19−5lbH P Finegan
126312
7.0Class ↓7

Made a great start over fences when winning an 8-runner mares maiden by a length from Future Prospect, jumping soundly at the head of affairs and knuckling down well. Backed that up when 1¼ lengths second of 7 to Shadow Paddy in Grade 3 chase at Galway. This course will suit her trailblazing style.

Class Advantage

20/04 · C10 · finish vs mark above20/04 · mark par20/0410/05 · C11 · finish vs mark below10/05 · mark par25/05 · C11 · finish vs mark below25/05 · mark par26/05 · C11 · finish vs mark below26/05 · mark par30/06 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a30/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a30/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength12%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 1 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 100%20/04Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 93%Pos 6 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 6 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 67%25/05Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 86%Pos 1 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 100%30/06Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 83%30/07
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +49.1%Ahead 4/4
1
Top Pick1
OR 121
5/1
Emily Love silks

James J Reilly

Emily Love

7yo Mare · 11-7

Mount Nelson - Emily Gray (Flemensfirth)

Jack Kennedy60%1/1G Elliott
341F13
7.0Going 10.0Class ↓7

Prolific novice hurdler who got off the mark at the second attempt over fences at Tramore in May, despite finding 2m barely enough of a test. Possibly found race coming too soon at Punchestown 8 days later. Should still have more to offer as a chaser.

Class Advantage

17/07 · C13 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par17/0729/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below29/07 · mark par21/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below21/08 · mark par18/10 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/10 · mark par30/05 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a7/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a7/06projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength63%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%17/07Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 67%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 0%21/08Pos 1 · SP 8/11 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 8/11 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%30/05Pos 3 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 3 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 0%7/06
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -39.1%Ahead 2/4
7
4
16/1
Walks The Talk silks

Keep Er Lit Syndicate

Walks The Talk

7yo Mare · 11-0

Walk In The Park - Ballyknock Hill (Indian Danehill)

Alex Harvey60%1/4J C McConnell
11525P
5.0Going 10.0Class ↓7
Hood

Winning pointer who won first 2 starts over hurdles prior to shaping better than the distance beaten suggests in better company at Haydock. Solid effort again when runner-up at Musselburgh in January but disappointing on final 2 starts. Makes chasing debut.

Class Advantage

4/08 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a4/0829/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a8/11 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a20/12 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below20/12 · mark par31/01 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below31/01 · mark par14/02 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below14/02 · mark par14/02projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼4
Strength90%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 4 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 67%4/08Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 100%8/11Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 75%31/01Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 0%14/02
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -22.6%Ahead 1/4
6
6
20/1
Missus Beeton silks

Kieran Corrigan

Missus Beeton

8yo Mare · 11-0

Mamool - Sli Eile (Classic Cliche)

Jordan GainfordJ P Dempsey
117093
4.0Class ↓7
Tongue strap

Fairly useful hurdler, successful twice in mares handicaps last season. Showed aptitude for chasing when 20½ lengths third of 6 to Luker's Tipple in novice chase at Tramore last time. Open to improvement in this sphere but this looks too competitive.

Class Advantage

20/01 · C10 · finish vs mark above20/01 · mark par20/013/03 · C11 · finish vs mark above3/03 · mark par4/04 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below4/04 · mark par4/07 · C12 · finish vs mark below4/07 · mark par29/07 · C12 · finish vs mark below29/07 · mark par13/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a13/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%20/01Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 65%4/04Pos 11 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 11 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 58%29/07Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 60%13/08
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength47%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +25.0%Ahead 3/4
5
7
16/1
Kelya silks

K Haughey

Kelya

6yo Mare · 11-0

Kapgarde - Toccata Vallis (Ballingarry)

Donagh Meyler0/1E Mullins
521375
4.0Class ↓7

Fair winning hurdler in France. Hasn't shown a great deal on either start for current connections, always behind in 6-runner maiden chase won by West Away at Wexford last time.

Class Advantage

18/08 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a18/0830/10 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a30/1013/03 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a13/038/08 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a8/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼5
Strength100%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f · 25%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 20%18/08Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 60%30/10Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 40%13/03Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 20%8/08
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength59%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +19.2%Ahead 3/4