15:45 · Newmarket

JRA Japan Cup Handicap

1mGoing TBCClass 53YO plusTURFHandicap13 runners
Ordered by projected finish
3
4
OR 72
8/1
Signcastle City silks

Middleham Park Racing III & Partner

6yo Gelding · 9-11

Dark Angel - Uae Queen (Oasis Dream)

Joe Leavy60%0/8R Hannon60%
232543
6.0Class ↓4

Consistent sort whose latest success came off this mark in a similar event at Chelmsford in February. Split a pair of next-time-out winners when 2¾-length third at Windsor last time. Makes plenty of appeal back down in grade.

Class Advantage

29/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/04 · mark par29/0412/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/05 · mark par23/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above23/05 · mark par23/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above23/06 · mark par9/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above9/07 · mark par13/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above13/08 · mark par13/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength83%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 2 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 80%29/04Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 95%23/05Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 64%Pos 4 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 4 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 73%9/07Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 71%13/08
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength88%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +12.6%Ahead 3/4
7
Value2
OR 74
14/1
Warning Symbol silks

The Gredley Family

3yo Gelding · 9-9

Mohaather - Eva Maria (Sea The Stars)

Cieren Fallon70%James Owen60%
5031P
6.0
Cheek pieces

Well backed to make a winning handicap debut at Kempton in February, value extra having been up with the strong pace throughout. Off since returning lame (again strong in the market) at Chelmsford the following month but he's in the right hands to overcome an absence. Looks interesting.

Class Advantage

14/07 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a14/0729/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a29/0728/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a28/0818/02 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/02 · mark par18/02projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength58%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 60%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 60%14/07Pos 10 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 36%29/07Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 75%28/08Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%18/02
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength32%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +11.1%Ahead 3/4
12
5
OR 66
13/2
Born A Rebel silks

Mr Patrick Owens

5yo Mare · 9-5

Outstrip - Right Rebel (Cockney Rebel)

Benoit D L Sayette60%3/10P Owens
024323
8.0Going 8.0

Won twice over 7f in lesser grades last year, including on July course. Has been running even better in defeat of late, coming home strongly when close third at Yarmouth (1m) last time. May fall short in a better race here.

Class Advantage

12/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below12/06 · mark par12/0620/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par17/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par31/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par6/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above6/08 · mark par17/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/09 · mark par17/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength27%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 11 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 11 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 0%12/06Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 90%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 40%17/07Pos 3 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 3 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 67%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 83%6/08Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 85%17/09
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength65%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -0.8%Ahead 2/4
2
Market Fav6
OR 74
3/1
A La Noche silks

Mr R Manley

5yo Gelding · 9-13

Lope De Vega - Mayhem (Whipper)

W Buick70%Oliver Cole
65691
5.0

Never looked like justifying support on belated reappearance, however, proved a different proposition when successful in a race that's worked out better than expected (second won since) at Salisbury latest. Still lightly raced for his age and can make bold bid off 5 lb higher with Buick booked.

Class Advantage

1/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a1/0818/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a20/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a14/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below14/08 · mark par3/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par3/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength70%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 80%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 6 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 58%1/08Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 20%18/08Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 44%20/09Pos 9 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 9 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 0%14/08Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%3/09
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength73%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -15.5%Ahead 2/4
1
Top Pick1
OR 75
12/1
Cancan In The Rain silks

The Wired Partnership

6yo Gelding · 10-0

Muhaarar - Sprinkling (Quality Road)

George Wood60%2/3Gihan Arnolda60%
444830
5.0
Visor

Completed a double on July course here (1m) last summer. Bright start for current yard prior to shaping as though amiss at Ascot last time. Bit to find at the weights, even if back on song in another change of headgear.

Class Advantage

3/10 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/10 · mark par3/1018/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/06 · mark par11/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par25/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par20/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par4/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength61%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 81%3/10Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 63%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 81%11/07Pos 8 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 8 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 78%20/08Pos 10 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 10 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 10%4/09
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 9-13 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -17.6%Ahead 1/4
13
3
OR 62
14/1
King Of Charm silks

Mr M Dunne

5yo Gelding · 9-1

Charming Thought - Ermyntrude (Rock Of Gibraltar)

Alice Bond60%1/2−5lbMartin Dunne60%
806217
6.0
Cheek pieces

Capitalised on a much-reduced mark in 1m July course handicap on penultimate start. Had still looked fairly treated on the best of his old form, but he wasn't in the same form when trailing the field over the same C&D 8 weeks ago.

Class Advantage

15/12 · C5 · finish vs mark below15/12 · mark par15/1210/01 · C5 · finish vs mark below10/01 · mark par1/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/04 · mark par28/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above28/05 · mark par20/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par31/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below31/07 · mark par31/07projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength23%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 8 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 13%15/12Pos 10 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 10 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 38%1/04Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 88%Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 100%20/06Pos 7 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 7 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 0%31/07
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength16%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -5.6%Ahead 2/4
4
10
OR 71
6/1
Potomac River silks

Mr Mohammed Al Suboosi

4yo Gelding · 9-10

Starspangledbanner - Tingleo (Galileo)

Ray Dawson60%0/1T Kent
676432
6.0

Relatively lightly-raced maiden. Continued run of good form when smooth-travelling second at Kempton (1m) last time, beaten ¾-length having been well positioned off a fairly steady pace. Solid claims if he can build on that returning to turf.

Class Advantage

13/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below13/05 · mark par13/0519/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par9/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below9/07 · mark par7/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/08 · mark par20/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par9/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/09 · mark par9/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength46%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 6 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 17%13/05Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 0%9/07Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 70%Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 67%20/08Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 92%9/09
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength77%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +5.1%Ahead 2/4
5
8
OR 75
12/1
Ecclefechan silks

Mr Gerry McGladery

3yo Gelding · 9-10

Bated Breath - Bahia Star (Twilight Son)

Christian Howarth60%1/2J Ryan
653117
6.0

Belated step up to 1m the catalyst for back-to-back successes at Windsor/Yarmouth last month. Probably found out by a quick turnaround when bidding for hat-trick at Windsor since. Could be worth another chance given he's still relatively unexposed as a miler.

Class Advantage

9/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/07 · mark par9/0717/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par7/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above7/08 · mark par24/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above24/08 · mark par30/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/08 · mark par7/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above7/09 · mark par7/09projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength67%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 44%9/07Pos 5 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 5 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 60%7/08Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%30/08Pos 7 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 7 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 25%7/09
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 2-13 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength46%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +10.4%Ahead 3/4
9
9
OR 69
12/1
Berry Clever silks

Strawberry Fields Stud

5yo Gelding · 9-8

Expert Eye - Rose Berry (Archipenko)

S De Sousa60%2/13C A Dwyer
544444
5.0

Remained in good heart since gaining a first success on turf at Yarmouth (7f) in May. Travelled well when beaten 2 lengths in 'Leger Legends' event at Doncaster last time. Could be vulnerable to a couple of less-exposed ones in here, though.

Class Advantage

14/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above14/06 · mark par14/0626/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above26/06 · mark par23/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above23/07 · mark par12/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/08 · mark par29/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par11/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/09 · mark par11/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength55%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 64%14/06Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 40%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 40%23/07Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 70%Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 57%29/08Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 75%11/09
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength37%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +0.7%Ahead 3/4
11
7
OR 71
12/1
Eloquencia silks

The Gredley Family

3yo Filly · 9-6

Sea The Stars - Chili Dip (Alhaarth)

Harry Davies60%James Owen
32214
7.0Going 8.0

Sea The Stars filly who improved to make a winning handicap debut in first-time cheekpieces at Ripon (1¼m). Didn't look herself when bidding to follow up at Chester in early-July and too soon to discount given her pedigree/connections (also saddle Warning Symbol).

Class Advantage

16/04 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a16/046/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a22/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a17/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/06 · mark par3/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below3/07 · mark par3/07projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength70%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 40%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 50%16/04Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 86%6/05Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 83%22/05Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%17/06Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 0%3/07
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 11-13 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -0.8%Ahead 3/4
8
11
OR 74
13/2
Media Legend silks

Got'im Partnership

3yo Gelding · 9-9

Ghaiyyath - Dubai One (Exceed And Excel)

Oisin Murphy80%Harry Charlton60%
523534
5.0Going 8.0
1st Cheekpieces +2

Lightly-raced sort who was steadily improving when keeping-on third at Newbury (7f) last month. Unsuited by emphasis on speed when failing to land the odds at Wolverhampton (8.5f) latest. Oisin Murphy booked and could well resume progress in first-time cheekpieces on a more suitable track.

Class Advantage

13/10 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a13/105/11 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a12/12 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a16/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par14/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above14/08 · mark par1/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/09 · mark par1/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength59%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 64%13/10Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 88%Pos 3 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 3 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 71%12/12Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 56%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 67%14/08Pos 4 · SP 5/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 4 · SP 5/6 | Actual: 40%1/09
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 8-13 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength6%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -17.6%Ahead 1/4
6
12
OR 75
25/1
Souffler silks

Bb Thoroughbreds

3yo Filly · 9-10

Bated Breath - Alsaaden (Acclamation)

D Egan60%0/1K P De Foy
76166
5.0

Much improved to land 7f novice on this course last October. Now steps up to 1m having failed to fire in either start this year, and there's a chance she hasn't trained on (not the biggest filly).

Class Advantage

3/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a3/0927/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a22/10 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a11/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below11/08 · mark par11/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below11/09 · mark par11/09projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength60%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 25%3/09Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 29%27/09Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%22/10Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 17%11/08Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 17%11/09
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 10-13 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +11.5%Ahead 3/4