14:17 · Pontefract

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery

6fGoing TBCClass 42YO onlyTURFHandicap6 runners
Ordered by projected finish
3
3
OR 79
11/4
The Mean Fiddler silks

Paul Dean Racing & Partners

2yo Colt · 9-6

No Nay Never - Counterparty Risk (Australia)

Jason Hart60%1/3J & S Quinn
221
9.0Going 8.0

200,000 gns No Nay Never colt. Narrowly denied here on debut (5f) and again found only one too good upped to 6f at Ripon next time. Landed the odds in an 8-runner Musselburgh maiden (5f) last month and can improve back in a nursery, the step back up in trip appealing as likely to suit.

Class Advantage

26/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a26/073/08 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a3/0824/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/08 · mark par24/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength11%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 2 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 80%26/07Pos 2 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 67%3/08Pos 1 · SP 1/3 | Expected: 98%Pos 1 · SP 1/3 | Actual: 100%24/08
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength68%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -2.7%Ahead 1/3
6
4
OR 76
6/1
Diamond New Bay silks

Mr Jaber Abdullah

2yo Filly · 9-3

New Bay - Queen Kindly (Frankel)

Jack Nicholls60%−3lbK R Burke60%
41
8.0

From a good family in these colours and was backed into 8/13 on debut at Thirsk but could only manage fourth. Much improved when responding well from the front to win a 7-runner novice at Carlisle (6f, good to soft, 11/4) 36 days ago and she could continue to progress on nursery bow.

Class Advantage

24/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a24/0719/08 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a19/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Class readCOMPETITIVE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength37%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 8/13 | Expected: 97%Pos 4 · SP 8/13 | Actual: 40%24/07Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%19/08
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -21.1%Ahead 1/2
1
Top Pick1
OR 82
3/1
Reflect On Glory silks

Mohamed Saeed Al Shehhi & Burke

2yo Colt · 9-9

Coulsty - Just Reminiscing (Bungle Inthejungle)

S H James70%K R Burke60%
315
6.0Going 8.0

Found significant improvement from his debut when winning 4-runner novice at Ripon (6f, good to firm) last month. Beat a next-time-out winner there but disappointed when only fifth of 7 in a similar race at Haydock (7f, good to soft) 21 days ago. Makes nursery debut for fair-looking opening mark.

Class Advantage

27/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a27/073/08 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a3/083/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below3/09 · mark par3/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 67%27/07Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%3/08Pos 5 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 5 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 33%3/09
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength7%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -10.3%Ahead 2/3
2
Market Fav2
OR 81
5/2
Captaincy silks

Isa Salman Al Khalifa

2yo Colt · 9-8

Havana Grey - Electric Love (Equiano)

Callum Rodriguez60%C G Cox
31
8.0Going 8.0

Built on a promising debut third at Leicester by landing the odds in an 11-runner novice at Windsor (6f, firm) 87 days ago. Likely to progress further now stepping into nursery company.

Class Advantage

26/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a26/0529/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a29/06projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 71%26/05Pos 1 · SP 4/7 | Expected: 97%Pos 1 · SP 4/7 | Actual: 100%29/06
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 5-5 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength27%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +34.6%Ahead 2/2
5
5
OR 77
7/1
Harley silks

Clarendon Thoroughbred Racing

2yo Gelding · 9-4

Soldier's Call - Chantaleen (Falco)

D Tudhope60%1/3E Bethell
523214
7.0Going 9.0

Made the most of what became a straightforward opportunity when winning 6-runner Hamilton novice (6f) last month. Not in same form faced with softer conditions for his nursery debut at that same C&D 3 weeks ago, though.

Class Advantage

15/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a15/0531/05 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a20/06 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a27/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par11/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/08 · mark par2/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above2/09 · mark par2/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength29%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 20%15/05Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 90%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 75%20/06Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 80%Pos 1 · SP 6/5 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 6/5 | Actual: 100%11/08Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 57%2/09
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength40%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -10.5%Ahead 1/4
4
6
OR 78
14/1
Lake Muritz silks

Reality Partnerships Xxi

2yo Filly · 9-5

Oasis Dream - Muritz (Free Eagle)

D Allan60%1/3T D Easterby
2165
5.0Class ↓3Going 8.0

Confirmed the promise of her Thirsk debut when successful at Beverley in May. Set a couple of stiff tasks at York later that month but 142-day absence is a bit concerning and she's best watched on nursery bow.

Class Advantage

18/04 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a18/044/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a4/0515/05 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a15/0523/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a23/05projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move1
Strength73%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 80%18/04Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%4/05Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 44%15/05Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 43%23/05
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 5-6 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +27.3%Ahead 3/4