Dilger
5yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 101
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Keeneland | ? | 10th | 4th | +5 |
| 2025-08-31 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-04-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | -3th | +5 |
| 2025-03-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2024 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 21/09/2024 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 29/01/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 02/03/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 05/04/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 24/05/2025 | 6th | 5/4 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 02/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 31/08/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 25/10/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |