6
Eliminate
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 92
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 27/12/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 28/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 28/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 14/08/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |