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9

Hill Road

4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 110

Belmont Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

83%

Place Prob

54%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼5
Strength100%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: +5.1
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Leopardstown 08/08/2024 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 1m Goo 1318/08C81 @ Curragh 15/09/2024 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 7f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Del Mar 01/11/2024 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 1m110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS1/11C?C1 @ Tampa Bay Downs 08/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 111 · 1m110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/03/2025 · OR 111 parC1 @ Belmont At The Big A 10/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 108 · 1m1f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/05/2025 · OR 108 par10/05C1OR 108C0 @ Saratoga 26/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 106 · 1m1f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 106 parC1 @ Kentucky Downs 30/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 109 · 1m2f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 109 par30/08C1OR 109C0 @ Belmont At The Big A 04/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 106 · 1m3f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 106 parC0 @ Del Mar 01/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 107 · 1m4f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 107 par1/11C?OR 107projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-11-01Del Mar?10th4th+5
2025-10-04Belmont At The Big A?3rd-3th+5
2025-08-30Kentucky Downs?3rd-3th+5
2025-07-26Saratoga?3rd-3th+5
2025-06-07Saratoga?+5
2025-05-10Belmont At The Big A?1st-5th+5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/088/0330/081/11
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/08/20241st11/271%100%+0.29
15/09/20247th14/126%14%-0.12
01/11/20243rd25/10%78%+0.78
08/03/20253rd4/179%67%-0.12
10/05/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
26/07/20253rd16/116%50%+0.34
30/08/20253rd10/147%82%+0.34
04/10/20253rd13/891%67%-0.25
01/11/202510th66/10%31%+0.31