4
Otello
5yo Horse · 9-0 · OR 89
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength14%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 01/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/09/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |