1
White Smoke Rising
3yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 105
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength58%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | -1th | +5 |
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength83%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 31/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |