Island Charm
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 74
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-03-01 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 15/11/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 01/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 78% | -0.14 |
| 16/04/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |