3
Luckforyou
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 68
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 9-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/12/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/01/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 19/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 24/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 18/06/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 14% | -0.46 |
| 19/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |