On A Summer Day
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 77
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-05-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-04-24 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 28/12/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 18/01/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 07/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 02/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 04/09/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |