Private Property

5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 87

Belmont Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

72%

Place Prob

44%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength31%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-22	Saratoga	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-07-10	Saratoga	?	8th	9th	−1	1.0
2026-03-13	Fair Grounds	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8
2025-11-02	Belmont At The Big A	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2025-10-03	Belmont At The Big A	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2025-09-21	Belmont At The Big A	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength49%

Delivery trend -8.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
02/05/2024	2nd	12/1	37%	90%	+0.53
16/06/2024	7th	16/1	16%	33%	+0.18
21/09/2025	7th	12/1	37%	33%	-0.04
03/10/2025	2nd	11/4	86%	89%	+0.03
02/11/2025	4th	8/1	58%	67%	+0.09
13/03/2026	2nd	5/1	74%	88%	+0.14
10/07/2026	8th	9/4	88%	0%	-0.88
22/08/2026	1st	7/2	82%	100%	+0.18