8
Roseberns Dream
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 66
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#13
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Aqueduct | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 2-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength49%
Delivery trend +9.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 31/08/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 26/12/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 16/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 19/03/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 24/04/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 11/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 19/07/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |