11
So Vain
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 65
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength0%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 03/10/2025 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 27% | -0.31 |
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 4/9 | 98% | 67% | -0.31 |
| 05/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 08/05/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |