Twirly
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 72
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-01 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-06-22 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 24/04/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 18% | -0.08 |
| 15/05/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 22/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 01/08/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 14/09/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 19/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |