12
Widdershins
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 63
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#14
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-04-03 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength18%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 07/12/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 09/01/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/02/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 08/03/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 03/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/05/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 25/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |