2
Baseball Lady
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 79
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-04-30 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-04-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength44%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 04/02/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 22/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 30/04/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |