6
Butter Kisses
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 75
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength27%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 20/07/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 10/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 18/07/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |