1
Fedupwiththefed
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 79
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-03-29 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-03-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength85%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 29/03/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 08/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 26/07/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 11% | -0.52 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |