IvyArcIvyArc
7

Full Pour

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 75

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Aqueduct 08/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 6f110y Fas 1208/03C6C6 @ Aqueduct 18/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 73 · 1m Fas 118 · below its mark18/04/2025 · OR 73 parC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 16/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 77 · 1m Gd 118 · below its mark16/05/2025 · OR 77 par16/05C6OR 77C6 @ Aqueduct 18/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 74 · 1m 122 · beat its mark18/01/2026 · OR 74 parC5 @ Aqueduct 12/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 80 · 1m1f 123 · beat its mark12/02/2026 · OR 80 par12/02C5OR 80C5 @ Aqueduct 07/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 79 · 1m 123 · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 79 parC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 09/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 78 · 1m110y Fm 126 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 78 par9/05C5OR 78C5 @ Saratoga 26/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 69 · 1m110y Fm 126 · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 69 parC5 @ Saratoga 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 75 · 1m Gd 126 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 75 par15/08C5OR 75projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Saratoga?3rd3rd0
2026-07-26Saratoga?6th6th0
2026-05-09Belmont At The Big A?6th6th0
2026-03-07Aqueduct?4th4th0
2026-02-12Aqueduct?4th4th0
2026-01-18Aqueduct?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0318/019/0515/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength57%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/03/20255th16/116%43%+0.27
18/04/20253rd6/168%50%-0.18
16/05/20253rd11/271%60%-0.11
18/01/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
12/02/20264th3/184%50%-0.34
07/03/20264th8/158%57%-0.01
09/05/20266th20/10%17%+0.17
26/07/20266th33/10%44%+0.44
15/08/20263rd9/276%67%-0.10