4
Liberty's Secret
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 87
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
Delivery trend -25.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |