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5

Perugia

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 81

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

61%

Place Prob

40%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Aqueduct 28/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 88 · 6f110y 120 · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 88 par28/11C8OR 88C8 @ Aqueduct 27/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 83 · 7f Fas 120 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 83 parC8 @ Aqueduct 22/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 63 · 7f 123 · below its mark22/01/2026 · OR 63 par22/01C8OR 63C8 @ Laurel Park 11/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 65 · 6f 126 · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 65 parC8 @ Laurel Park 25/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 65 · 5f110y Fm 126 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 65 par25/04C8OR 65C8 @ Delaware Park 17/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 72 · 6f 121 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 72 parC7 @ Delaware Park 24/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 65 · 6f 122 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 65 par24/07C7OR 65C7 @ Delaware Park 14/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 71 · 1m 121 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 71 parC7 @ Delaware Park 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 72 · 5f110y Fas 125 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 72 par29/08C7OR 72projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Delaware Park?2nd4th−2
2026-08-14Delaware Park?1st3rd−2
2026-07-24Delaware Park?1st3rd−2
2026-06-17Delaware Park?1st4th−3
2026-04-25Laurel Park?6th9th−3
2026-04-11Laurel Park?2nd5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/1111/0424/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength72%

Delivery trend +7.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/11/20256th2/189%0%-0.89
27/12/20258th20/10%13%+0.13
22/01/20267th12/137%0%-0.37
11/04/20262nd5/287%80%-0.07
25/04/20266th9/276%44%-0.32
17/06/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
24/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
14/08/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
29/08/20262nd9/488%75%-0.13