9
Velocity Girl
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 75
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-09 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength18%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 23/08/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 10/10/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 01/11/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 09/01/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 07/03/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 19/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |