12
Expensive Cut
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 84
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-02-24 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength32%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2024 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/11/2024 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 28/11/2024 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 24/02/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |