11
Otto Nipoti
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 73
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-07-23 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength16%
Delivery trend +5.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 01/09/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 13/10/2025 | 2nd | 1/2 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 19/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 16/01/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |