5
Polar Bear Plunge
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 96
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength95%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 18/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 29/01/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 19/02/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 56% | -0.33 |
| 16/03/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 30/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |