Smilensaycheese

4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 86

Belmont Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m

#10

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength34%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.0

Today:

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-26	Saratoga	?	7th	6th	+1	4.2
2026-07-31	Saratoga	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-07-16	Saratoga	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-06-26	Belmont At The Big A	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-06-12	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-05-24	Belmont At The Big A	?	6th	6th	0	4.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength80%

Delivery trend +6.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
02/04/2026	4th	9/2	76%	40%	-0.36
17/04/2026	7th	16/1	16%	14%	-0.02
30/04/2026	8th	40/1	0%	0%	0.00
24/05/2026	6th	12/1	37%	17%	-0.20
12/06/2026	5th	20/1	0%	43%	+0.43
26/06/2026	6th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
16/07/2026	3rd	33/1	0%	67%	+0.67
31/07/2026	5th	33/1	0%	33%	+0.33
26/08/2026	7th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00