Alpha Cat
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 73
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-08-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-07-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/2024 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 26/07/2024 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/07/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/07/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 29/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 20/08/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 10/09/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 08/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 22/10/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |