Burning Bridges

3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 88

Belmont Park · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 7f

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

86%

Place Prob

50%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength50%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-05	Colonial Downs	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-07-23	Colonial Downs	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-05-16	Belmont At The Big A	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8
2026-04-23	Aqueduct	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8
2026-03-19	Gulfstream	?	1st	0th	+1	9.6
2026-02-15	Gulfstream	?	2nd	1st	+1	8.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength10%

Delivery trend +0.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 14.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
11/11/2015	7th	15/1	21%	14%	-0.07
10/06/2016	10th	6/1	68%	10%	-0.58
15/02/2026	2nd	9/4	88%	86%	-0.02
19/03/2026	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12
23/04/2026	2nd	10/3	82%	88%	+0.05
16/05/2026	6th	11/4	86%	38%	-0.48
23/07/2026	1st	11/4	86%	100%	+0.14
05/09/2026	4th	5/2	87%	57%	-0.30