Coach Case
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 98
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-10-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-08-21 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 91% | -0.03 |
| 04/06/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 20/07/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 21/08/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |
| 11/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 07/11/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 56% | -0.31 |
| 16/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 90% | -0.02 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |