9
Counter Move
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 80
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#13
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-23 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-03-20 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-12-31 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength58%
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2025 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 19/09/2025 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 14/11/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 31/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 20/03/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 60% | -0.35 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 09/07/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |