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3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 84
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#14
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-03 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-04-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength75%
Delivery trend +8.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 02/08/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 02/09/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |