Mozambique

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 85

Belmont Park · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 7f

#12

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#12

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength53%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.0

Today:

Class gap: +1.5

Higher-class runs: 6

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-06	Saratoga	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2026-08-01	Saratoga	?	8th	6th	+2	3.8
2026-07-04	Saratoga	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8
2026-06-07	Saratoga	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-05-15	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-04-18	Aqueduct	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▬

Strength7%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
29/11/2025	5th	7/2	82%	64%	-0.18
05/02/2026	8th	20/1	0%	36%	+0.36
28/02/2026	2nd	9/2	76%	88%	+0.11
18/04/2026	2nd	7/2	82%	83%	+0.02
15/05/2026	5th	15/2	61%	33%	-0.27
07/06/2026	5th	20/1	0%	50%	+0.50
04/07/2026	3rd	33/1	0%	82%	+0.82
01/08/2026	8th	16/1	16%	13%	-0.03
06/09/2026	7th	8/1	58%	14%	-0.44