7
Naguile
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 87
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-03 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength30%
Delivery trend -12.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 03/06/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 45% | -0.12 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 27/08/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |