12
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3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 87
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Saratoga | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-02-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength95%
Delivery trend +6.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 01/01/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 12/02/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 23/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 16/07/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |