13
Twohonestmischief
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 84
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength55%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-11-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-09-19 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-08-15 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-07-27 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength38%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 05/04/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 04/05/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 27/07/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 15/08/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 19/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 14/11/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 03/01/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 88% | -0.04 |
| 05/02/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 45% | -0.07 |