12
Classic Commander
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 75
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#11
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength73%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-04-18 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-03-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1543% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 31/12/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 14/02/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 22/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |