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4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 48
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#15
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 7.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-12-10 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-06-21 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 0th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/2016 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 11% | -0.57 |
| 01/03/2016 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 26/05/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 21/06/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/10/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 13/11/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 21/11/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 10/12/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 19/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |