4
Thundertaker
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 59
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
| 2026-05-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1571% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength45%
Delivery trend -6.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 07/06/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 16/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |