Key Stat
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 80
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 2.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-08-08 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-07-13 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-06-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-06-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 07/03/2025 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 06/04/2025 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 08/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 27/06/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 13/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 08/08/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 27/09/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 25% | -0.68 |