Run Of The House
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 78
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-03-19 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-03-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-02-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-01-03 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2024-12-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -14.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2024 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/12/2024 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 03/01/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 14/02/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/03/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 19/03/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 05/08/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |