Classy Bay
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 69
Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-12 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 22/02/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 05/03/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 20/03/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 16/04/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 8/13 | 97% | 43% | -0.54 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |